Have you ever heard that past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior? I have, and when I first heard this statement, I thought it made sense and latched on to it. But recently, God has helped me to realize that this statement cannot be broadly and conclusively applied to people, especially to born-again Christians for a few of the following reasons:

Reason 1: Born-again Christians have the Holy Spirit within them, and one of the main functions of the Spirit is to transform lives. The Holy Spirit is constantly at work changing a Christian’s perceptions, attitude, habits, and overall character. As such, who a Christian presently is may be vastly different from who that Christian will become in the future. Furthermore, as born-again Christians yield to the Spirit, the fruit of the Spirit grows in them and produces these character changes: “…love, joy, peace, longsuffering, gentleness, goodness, faith, meekness, [and] temperance” (Galatians 5:22).

Reason 2: Repentance is not an option but an obligation. Consequently, born-again Christians are dying daily to old habits and behaviors. Repentance causes people to change direction and this change in direction also produces character growth and visible change. No one knew this better than John the Baptist because the focus of his message was calling people to repentance, and beyond that, he noted that repentance produces fruits, for he said, “Bring forth, therefore, fruits meet for repentance” (Matthew 3:8). By far, the most noteworthy fruit of repentance is a changed life, which demonstrates that a born-again Christian’s past behavior is not the best predictor of future behavior.

Reason 3: As born-again Christians grow and submit their will to God, the Spirit begins the process of conforming them to the image of Christ. Conform means to be similar or identical. Therefore, through the conforming process, born-again Christians gradually become more like Jesus. Here is a relevant example. Jesus told his disciples, “A new commandment I give unto you, that ye love one another; as I have loved you, that ye also love one another. By this shall all men know that ye are my disciples if ye have love one to another” (John 13:34-35).

Simply put, others would be able to identify the disciples as Jesus’ followers by how well their demonstration of love towards each other matches Jesus’ demonstration of love towards them. Hence, obedience to this commandment is what conforming to the image of Christ looks like. Similarly, if the fruit of the Spirit is at work in the life of a born-again Christian, he is conforming to the image of Christ because the Holy Spirit is Christ living on the inside. Scripture says, “So all of us who have had that veil removed can see and reflect the glory of the Lord. And the Lord—who is the Spirit—makes us more and more like him as we are changed into his glorious image” (2 Corinthians 3:18, NLT).

So, what is the best predictor of a born-again Christian’s future behavior? The best predictor is their obedience to the word of God.